Euro 2024 preview: The Netherlands' tactics, likely XI, key players and route to the final

With Euro 2024 just around the corner, here's everything you need to know about the Netherlands side that will be competing in Germany this summer.

Squad

There weren’t too many shocks in the final squad announced by Ronald Koeman, with most of the big names that were excluded missing out because of fitness issues.

That was the case with Marten de Roon, Jurrien Timber, Sven Botman, Noa Lang, Quilindschy Hartman and Mats Wieffer. Only Hartman was all but guaranteed to start but all would have played a part in the tournament if fit, so their absence is a blow.

One surprise was the exclusion of Ian Maatsen, who many expected to replace Hartman. Instead, Daley Blind, Nathan Ake and Micky van de Ven will be the left-back options.

Joshua Zirkzee was also left out after picking up an injury at the end of the season, but selecting Wout Weghorst over him and Thijs Dallinga was an unpopular decision with fans given the Bologna man is expected to be fit again by mid to late June and the Toulouse player enjoyed a strong season in Ligue 1.

Even more unpopular was choosing Georginio Wijnaldum over young talent Quinten Timber, who enjoyed an excellent campaign in the Eredivisie while Wijnaldum was plying his trade in Saudi Arabia.

Wijnaldum is one of many experienced players in the squad with eight of them in their 30s and 18 of them having been to at least one major international tournament before. It’s not an ageing group by any means though, with an average age of 26.5.

Most are used to playing at a top level every week too with 19 of the 26 playing for a club in one of Europe’s top five leagues and just six competing in the Eredivisie. At the 2022 World Cup, 12 played in one of the major leagues and 11 in their home country.

Tactics

Koeman initially ditched Louis van Gaal’s 5-3-2 system for a 4-2-3-1 but reverted to a back five after losses to France, Croatia and Italy. He’s since switched back and forth but is likely to opt for five defenders at the Euros after his side played poorly in a back four against Scotland in March, even if they did win 4-0.

The system used in the match that followed that, a narrow 2-1 defeat to Germany, and in the final games of qualifying is a 5-2-1-2 that can become more of a 3-4-2-1 in possession, with the wing-backs pushing up and one of the strikers dropping deeper to sit alongside the attacking midfielder.

It’s a setup that is tailored to the opponent. Wing-backs sometimes stay high and wide, sometimes sit deeper and sometimes drift inside to add an extra body to the midfield, while an attacker can come in for a third midfielder against weaker sides that are expected to sit deep.

The 4-2-3-1 creates the same 3-4-2-1 shape in possession, with the left-back staying deep and forming a back three while the right-back bombs forward with the right-winger - most likely Xavi - moving inside.

Koeman wants his team to be tactically flexible enough to seamlessly switch between this 5-3-2 and a 4-2-3-1, but while the regular use of the two setups has made them somewhat comfortable with both, it also means they haven’t fully mastered either.

Likely starting XI

Both Mark Flekken and Bart Verbruggen have enjoyed solid debut seasons in England but the latter has looked the better of the two for the national team and so is set to start between the posts in Germany.

Virgil van Dijk is likely to be flanked by Matthijs de Ligt and Nathan Ake at the back, and with Stefan de Vrij and Micky van de Ven the other options, there are few if any nations stronger than Oranje in this area of the pitch.

The same can be said for the right wing-back spot, where Denzel Dumfries will probably just about get the nod over Frimpong having always delivered for his country.

Things aren’t looking so good on the other side following the injury to first-choice Hartman. Oranje veteran Daley Blind will probably start in his absence, but while the Girona man is excellent on the ball, his lack of pace makes him a liability defensively. Given that, Koeman could test Van de Ven there in the pre-tournament friendlies.

The biggest question mark is who will join Frenkie de Jong and Tijani Reijnders in midfield. Holding midfielder Jerdy Schouten is most likely to do so against top sides, but Reijnders could play deeper with a more attacking number 10 coming in against supposedly weaker opponents.

You’d think Xavi Simons would be a shoo-in given he’s been the best Dutch player in the world this season, but he’s yet to convince for Oranje and Koeman has stated a preference for playing three “proper” midfielders. Teun Koopmeiners has also enjoyed an excellent campaign but struggled for his country, meaning Wijnaldum could get a lot of playing time if neither of those two can impress in pre-tournament friendlies.

If fit, Memphis Depay will start up top, most likely alongside Cody Gakpo, who will drop deeper and wider to the left in possession. Donyell Malen is probably third in line while Brian Brobbey and Weghorst offer more physical options should Koeman wish to go more direct in search of a goal.

Key players

Virgil van Dijk - One of the biggest boosts for Oranje is that captain Van Dijk is playing much better now than he was at the 2022 World Cup after a strong season with Liverpool. If he’s at his best, the team will feel confident of dealing with any strikers they come up against.

Frenkie de Jong - The fact that Koeman never even thought about leaving De Jong out of the squad given he’s been out injured says it all. The Barcelona man is the heartbeat of the side, dictating the tempo of the game and driving the team forward. Generally, if he plays well, the Dutch play well, and if he doesn’t, they don’t.

Xavi Simons - With Memphis Depay failing to produce his best at major tournaments, what the Netherlands have lacked on the big stage is a forward that can create something out of nothing, that can break down defences on his own. If he can replicate his club form for his country, Xavi will be that spark they’ve been longing for.

Route to the final

Image credit: The Telegraph

The Netherlands have been placed in a difficult group in which they’ll go up against France, Austria and Poland. They should just about be good enough to beat a dangerous Austria side to second, but finishing above France will probably be too tall an order.

Should that be the case and everything else goes as expected - which is obviously a big if - they’ll then face Ukraine in the round of 16, Portugal in the quarter-finals and Germany or Spain in the semis, if they make it that far.

If they manage to finish above the French, the most likely outcome is them facing Turkey in the round of 16, Belgium in the quarters and England in the semis.

In the first scenario, their most likely opponents in the final would be France or England, and in the second it would be France or Germany.

Prediction

Since being taken over by Koeman for the second time, the Netherlands have beaten all of the teams they’ve been expected to beat and lost to all of the top sides they’ve faced, and there’s little reason to believe things will be any different at the Euros.

There’s plenty of talent in the squad, but injuries in the last year or so have prevented Koeman from finding and testing his strongest team, both in terms of personnel and formation, which is a big issue.

So too is the lack of a world-class striker with Memphis not heading into the tournament in the best shape after an injury-plagued season and Brian Brobbey not quite ready to lead the line.

Brobbey is one of many players who should be ready to help the nation challenge for the World Cup in two years, but this tournament has probably come too soon for them.

Given the above problems, it’s difficult to see the Dutch finishing above France in the group stage and getting through a likely quarter-final clash with Portugal that would follow if they do go through in second place.

Prediction: Quarter-finals